What to Expect and What Not from 2010
A report in Q&A format.
Question: Is 2010 going to be an easier year than last for Hispanic advertising and media?
Answer: We think so. Of course, that is not difficult as last year was horrible. The U.S. economy, despite still facing serious challenges, is in a more predictable situation than last year. Remember, last year at this time the economy was in a “free fall”. While it is unlikely that advertising sales are going to go back to 2007 levels, there is a good chance that they will grow vs. 2009. World Cup Advertising, a once in every four years opportunity, and the Census, once in every ten years, are helping to push the ad sales needle.
Other than the economic recession aren’t there also structural issues in the media and advertising industries?
Definitely, and the recession has pronounced them, making change even more imperative. Basically, the old adage that “50% of advertising does not work, but we do not which one” is less and less true. Due to the adoption of digital media, it is getting much easier to measure which campaigns work and which don’t. While measuring TV, print and other “conventional” advertising is possible, digital media is much easier to measure. As marketers gain more knowledge about the 50% of their budgets that does not work, they will decrease their allocations to “non working media” and increase them in digital- measurable media.
So this will be a zero-sum-game?
No. The problem is that the substitution will not be one to one, as digital media tends to be less expensive than conventional media. So the 50% that does not work will shrink (although not to 0) and the digital measurable media allocation will increase (although not proportionately to the decrease of non-working media). In other words, it is unlikely that there will high-growth figures for the advertising market as a whole during the next few years. Yet, once the economy recovers, the structural decline in advertising will be partially offset by the cyclical recovery.
Will these structural changes also impact Hispanic advertising and media?
Yes, the whole media sector, including Hispanic, is and will be affected by it. However, for Hispanic the outlook is more positive, due to the fact that corporate America is increasingly looking for Hispanic customers to increase their sales. More and more corporate marketers know that to increase their overall sales, they need to increase their share of the Hispanic consumer market. According to Charlie Echeverry, Senior Vice President, National Sales Director, Univision Interactive Media, “Many of our clients are seeing Hispanic sales growth outpace non Hispanic, and are investing to protect and gain market share from their competitors.”
What are shaping up to be the strong ad categories in 2010?
Obviously the World Cup related ones and the census. In addition, media executives interviewed by Portada think that automotive should bounce back during the second half of the year once the deleveraging and line closing process in Detroit slows down and new product lines have to be promoted. Another strong category, according to many insiders asked by Portada, is entertainment. Hispanics overindex in consumption of entertainment and Hollywood and other entertainment oriented industries are starting to take serious notice of this.
Univision Interactive Media’s Charlie Echeverry: sees growth in the following online advertising categories: Wireless, Media & Entertainment, Financial Services and Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG).”
… Any other categories? What about parenting?....
Parenting is one of the few categories that has worked quite well even during the recession. (read a story on how Meredith’s Hispanic parenting magazines grew advertising in 2009 here). How has the parenting category done during last years economic recession? As Cynthia Nelson, COO of Todobebe, points out “There are one million new births each year to Spanish-speaking parents so there are nearly five million children ages 0-5 at any one give time.” This makes Hispanic parenting media properties crucial to connect with these new buyers of parenting products.
The one million dollar question… Is 2010 finally going to be the year of mobile advertising?
Mobile is still a low category in terms of advertising dollars. But will 2010 finally be the year in which this very promising category will take off? (read related article here). To Univision’s Echeverry, “mobile is not a slow category at all. In fact, according to eMarketer, growth is forecasted to hit +31 percent in 2010.” On a personal level, at the CTIA conference (The Wireless Association) this year was eye opening. There was a real sense of energy and enthusiasm for the mobile platform and a buzz around an interactive marketing platform I haven’t felt since the late 90s. Additionally, content experiences on mobile devices are finally reaching a level where adjacencies and sponsorships have real impact and drive results that marketers are not able to ignore. Couple that with Google’s recent acquisition and I believe the mobile advertising industry is poised for significant growth. Increasingly, the Hispanic mobile user is of strategic importance given their over-indexing on mobile behavior. At Univision, we’ve made major investments on our mobile experiences this year. We will continue to expand in 2010 to service what will be a growing demand and marketplace."
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