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Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election has come as a surprise to many. His stances on immigration and trade with Mexico (Televisa’s stock was down 8% this morning) have many multicultural media and marketing executives thinking (and possibly worrying?). Just this morning, WPP’s Sir Martin Sorrell admitted surprise after the “second Brexit: Donald Trump’s U.S. election-win.”  Other executives contacted by Portada acknowledged to be “speechless.” In any case, what does Trump’s victory say about multicultural marketing and its future?

5 Thoughts…

1. Does It Still Make Sense to Implement National Campaigns with a Multicultural Focus?

A key question to be resolved by brand marketers and agency executives is how national marketing campaigns — particularly those that rely heavily on diverse constituents but that are inclusive of all constituencies — can be effficiently implemented in a country with citizens and consumers as divided as they currently are in the United States. Will the pendulum swing back to Hispanic-specific campaigns?

2. Substantial Increase in Uncertainty Regarding Immigration

The Hispanic population is far from homogeneous, and Trump’s victory may not impact Hispanics that are U.S. citizens. However, those that are not citizens, particularly the undocumented segment of the Hispanic population, will be under pressure. Obama’s executive order in November 2014 gave protection to approximately 5 million Hispanics — of which almost 50% live in California, Texas and Florida —  that are undocumented. A new president, Donald Trump, can reverse this executive order. Uncertainty for this portion of the Hispanic population will likely mean lower consumption rates.

3. Obamacare: Healthcare Marketing Looking Gloomy

Approximately 20 million Americans, of which 4 million are Hispanics, are now health-insured as a result of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), which jump-started Hispanic health insurance marketing in a substantial way. During the final week of his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump vowed to repeal the 2010 health-care law so quickly that he might summon Congress into a special session to accomplish the task.   The impact on healthcare insurance marketing may be substantial, both from a regulatory and target-audience perspective.

4. Big Media Mergers Are Less Likely

Donald Trump’s upset victory in the presidential race has raised new questions about whether AT&T ‘s pending $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner will secure approval from federal regulators. A wave of populism that put Trump over the top on Election Day has cast a shadow on the potential for other big deals involving media and entertainment assets. Trump’s campaign was hostile to the mainstream media establishment, particularly in its final months. In addition, Trump showed opposition to excessive media concentration.

5.The Polling/Data Modeling Industry Disaster May Bring Back the “Art” of Marketing

Trump’s victory was a huge surprise. In the age of real-time data input and massive analysis of data sets and surveys, the polling industry got it all wrong. This is a reminder that “art” is as essential to communications and marketing as is “science.”

…and 3 Facts.

1. Hispanics Were Not a Deciding Factor, or at Least Not in the Way Anti-Trump Pundits Expected

descarga-5According to CNN’s exit polls, about 27% of Latinos voted for Trump. Exit polls from The New York Times put the figure at 29%. This means that Trump did better with Hispanics than Bob Dole in 1996 (21%), and wound up comparable to Mitt Romney in 2012 (27%). But, this is a reminder that Latino voters aren’t monolithic, one-dimensional, or single-issue oriented. As Mike Gonzalez wrote in the Daily Signal, Mexican-Americans punished Trump for saying that Mexico sends us “rapists”: “But most of that took place in states out West, where Hillary Clinton won overwhelmingly. In Florida, people of Mexican origin comprised only 15% of the ‘Hispanic’ population as of the last Census.” In Florida, Cuban-Americans punished Clinton for supporting President Barack Obama’s diplomatic opening to the Castro dictatorship.

2. Urban-Multicultural Areas Voted Overwhelmingly for Clinton

The majority of the Northeast and the Western states, where a majority of the Hispanic population lives (particularly those with a Mexican origin), voted for Clinton. In many cases, overwhelmingly so. This was not the case with Texas. But even in Florida — which Trump won — the Miami urban areas, where Hispanics and multicultural consumers are a significant part of the population, the majority of the vote went to the Democratic candidate.

3. “Whitelash”: A Tale of Two Countries

Trump directed his campaign to whites who felt alienated by the influx of Hispanic and other immigrants. The white, mostly male, working-class vote (not millennials!) propelled Trump to victory, in stark contrast with the millennial and multicultural vote, which was essential to Obama during the last two presidential election cycles.

 

 

 

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JDAnewSMpic-1Julie Diaz-Asper, Founding Partner & CEO at Social Lens Research offers an analysis of the Presidential campaign’s social media outreach to Latinos.  The campaigns who do well with Latinos on social media have significant amounts to gain.  Latinos helped the Democrats keep the White House in 2012, with 70% voting for Obama. Around 27 million Latinos are eligible to vote this time, with an estimated 13 million expected to vote, an increase of 17% since 2012 (NALEO). Expect to see significant spend and innovation on social outreach to Latinos this election cycle.

Expectations are high around the Latino vote in the 2016 election. Around 27 million Latinos are eligible to vote, with an estimated 13 million expected to vote, an increase of 17% since 2012 (NALEO). Latinos helped the Democrats win the White House with 70% voting for Obama.

Getting the Latinos to the poll this election cycle is paramount. Yet, targeted outreach to Latinos, especially on social and mobile channels, could use more attention. 64% of Latinos recently polled by Social Lens Research via MocoSpace, a mobile gaming platform, haven’t had any contact with a campaign recently. This low engagement is surprising given that the MocoSpace community tends to over-index on social media and mobile usage. Even more interesting, the survey found Latinos more closely watching the election on social media [36%] than whites [31%] or African Americans [30%], highlighting a potential engagement gap by the campaigns.

A Quick Look at Social Efforts of the Campaigns to Date:

Social media can have large implications for political campaign messaging and candidate perception. For example, Hillary Clinton’s campaign tried to engage Latino Millennials by comparing her to “your abuela,” and the social media community revolted. #NotMyAbuela and #NotMiAbuela hashtags developed, articles in NY Times, Slate and others picked up the anti-abuela campaign, and weeks later, the two hashtags continued to be used by Latinos who don’t support Clinton.

64% of Latinos haven’t had any contact with a campaign recently.

Not many Latino marketers including myself can say we have never tried the abuela angle but it’s much more powerful and way less risky when you have real abuelas involved versus trying to generically speak for them.
The good news is that Hillary Clinton’s social media efforts seem to be transitioning. There was a marked shift earlier this year by the campaign to bring in real voices that could help represent Hillary Clinton better. One great example leading up to the South Carolina primary, showcased the mothers of African Americans killed by police, adding authenticity and credibility to the outreach efforts. It appears to have paid off with higher than expected turnout and share of African American votes. Imagine if Hillary’s campaign would have done the same with real abuelas and Latinos?

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To connect more effectively, Hillary Clinton has been using more authentic, in-the-moment photos – that are moving in the right direction.

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I also really liked the Dump Trump Geofilter on Snapchat put out by Priorities USA Action, a pac backing Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders has been mainly sticking to the issues with many direct quotes and videos from his speeches and rallies.  Bernie also started well on Snapchat back in November with an adorable grandpa-like post “what is this Snapshot thing and why do I only get ten seconds?” I am not sure if he actually came up with that but it feels like he could have. Since then, the Bernie camp have also done some clever Snapchat geofliters  to get out the vote.

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Sanders’ strategy seems to be winning on being able to reach younger Latinos who are happy to volunteer and create content for him, checkout Latinos for Bernie on Facebook.  Millennials are also helping to sell “El Bernie” to their parents and grandparents. Given that Millennials are close to 50% of the Latino vote (Pew), the youth vote will be critical.

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It’s considered unlikely that Bernie Sanders’ social wins will translate into a Bernie win, but a lot can be learned from his campaign’ s reach and engagement success with Millennial Latinos.

On the Republican side, let’s just say it’s been more about alienation than outreach to Latinos. Trump has dominated by using his reality star status, sharp anti-immigrant rhetoric and loyal fans to use Twitter as a personal broadcast tool to dominant the news and get coverage. Trump’s social efforts and huge in-person rallies have taken down the much more experienced, well financed and establishment candidate, Jeb Bush, and made him the forefront leader.  What’s unclear is whether Trump’s unfiltered ranting will translate to a wider appeal for the general election.  The rest of the Republican pack doesn’t really stand out in their social outreach efforts.

Overall, it’s been a wild ride with social being used by non-established candidates to build a base and following—something no one predicted on either side.

Getting the Latinos to the poll this election cycle is paramount. Yet, targeted outreach to Latinos, especially on social and mobile channels, could use more attention.

What’s coming next? Honestly, who knows! We do we see a few potential opportunities for campaigns to increase their Latino engagement efforts from the MocoSpace community check-in:

  • Latinos Prefer Live Candidate Interactions: Asked how candidates could better connect to them and their friends, live Q & A on social media was most popular [35%] with Latinos, followed by live events with the candidate [34%].
  • Alternative Media Offers an Opportunity for Campaigns: Interviews with non-traditional media [bloggers, YouTube stars] scored well with Latinos [32%].
  • Optimize Social Media Messages for Mobile: 59% of Latinos think candidates should use social media mobile messages to reach them.  Latino interest was much higher than Whites at 53%.
  • Voter Registration Outreach Needed By Many Latinos: A quarter of Latinos polled are unregistered or unsure of their status.  Some [13%] say they plan to register. Another 15% are eligible but unsure how to register, not clear on their registration status, or have difficulties registering. Resolving these issues with them would benefit candidates.

Whether you are involved in politics or not, it will be important to watch campaign tactics as you can expect significant digital outreach spend and innovation regardless of who wins.

Julie Diaz-Asper is the founder of Social Lens Research. Social Lens has a proven track record of using a mix of social marketing techniques and sound research methodologies to better engage and gain deeper insights (mobile optimized research exercises, focus groups, social contests).Julie has over two decades of experience helping large organizations to innovate and pursue new market opportunities including American Express, AARP, Google Multicultural, Univision, Consumer Reports en Español, Cabot Cheese, Mobile Future, CX Act, HITN, Immersive Youth Marketing and Inspire Agency.

Trump Effect could be positive for Hispanics; Honey Maid profiles Dominican immigrant family; Gannett downsizes; and Clinton ponders Latino campaign strategy.

The Trump effect

Yeah, he talked trash about Hispanics and made people very mad. But you know what? He also got more people to, um, notice Hispanics. And that includes general-market media. Publications including the Business Insider, International Business Times, and the Baltimore Sun (which covered Honey Maid’s “4 de Julio” campaign as part of the larger story), as well as usual suspects like the Yucatan Times, ran articles countering Trump’s egregious remarks by making the same points that Hispanic media outlets and agencies have been making for a long, long time: $1.5 trillion market + 17.1 percent of total U.S. population = important demographic. We told you so!

Honey Maid is sweet on Hispanics

“4 de Julio” is one of a new set of TV spots for Honey Maid, the brand that Mondelez International relaunched two years ago. It focuses on the Gomez family, immigrants from the Dominican Republic, talking about what it means to be American. According to Co.Create, along with the 30-second TV spot, the brand made short documentaries profiling three of the families featured in the ad. The campaign from Droga5 extends the #ThisIsWholesome theme, which aims to showcase American diversity by featuring same-sex parents, biracial couples and blended families.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsxFM_P5cr4&w=560&h=315]

Sell Clinton like Coke

HillarySpeaking of general market pubs covering Hispanic issues, BuzzFeed ran an article on a potential Hispanic marketing strategy for the Hillary Clinton campaign. BuzzFeed reported, “The campaign is said to be keeping its options open for talent, looking beyond Hispanic political firms that have been brought on for this work in years past to, as an example, ‘go get the firm that does Latino advertising for Coca-Cola,’ said Andres Ramirez, a 20-year veteran Democratic strategist who was part of the local meeting in Nevada.”

BuzzFeed reporter Adrian Carrasquillo spoke to several Hispanic marketing consultants, as well as Hispanic political consultants to get their views on how Hillary should get with Latinos.

Gannet is downsizing

Or maybe we should call it right-sizing. The media conglom spun off its newspaper properties under the Gannett rubric. Now, Tegna Inc., the digital and broadcast company that split from Gannett, is unloading its giant McLean, Va. headquarters complex. London-based Tamares Group will buy the complex and lease part of it back to Gannett. In June, Gannett completed its acquisition of the Texas-New Mexico Newspapers Partnership, and CEO Robert Dickey said that he aims to have newspapers in the expanded chain work more closely together and share assets as USA Today Media Network.

Bromley retires and shuts agency

BromleyExecutives always say they’re leaving somewhere to pursue “other opportunities.” In the case of Ernest Bromley, who founded Bromley Communications in 1981, it’s really true. He’s going after a PhD in consumer behavior, according to the San Antonio Business Journal. Read our full interview with Bromley to hear his thoughts about the current Hispanic marketing landscape and why we need the kind of research that clients won’t pay for.

Local radio up while overall ad spending dips

Kantar Media’s quarterly ad-spending report found that overall dollars were down – and not only because of the extreme advertising for the Olympics last year. Sixteen of the 21 media types Kantar monitors saw lower spends. One of the exceptions was local radio: Hispanic local radio expenditures increased 6.5 percent, while English-language local radio was up 5 percent, thanks to auto dealers, legal services, and healthcare providers. Network radio went down 2.0 percent, and national spot radio dimmed 11.3 percent.

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