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2016 elections

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Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election has come as a surprise to many. His stances on immigration and trade with Mexico (Televisa’s stock was down 8% this morning) have many multicultural media and marketing executives thinking (and possibly worrying?). Just this morning, WPP’s Sir Martin Sorrell admitted surprise after the “second Brexit: Donald Trump’s U.S. election-win.”  Other executives contacted by Portada acknowledged to be “speechless.” In any case, what does Trump’s victory say about multicultural marketing and its future?

5 Thoughts…

1. Does It Still Make Sense to Implement National Campaigns with a Multicultural Focus?

A key question to be resolved by brand marketers and agency executives is how national marketing campaigns — particularly those that rely heavily on diverse constituents but that are inclusive of all constituencies — can be effficiently implemented in a country with citizens and consumers as divided as they currently are in the United States. Will the pendulum swing back to Hispanic-specific campaigns?

2. Substantial Increase in Uncertainty Regarding Immigration

The Hispanic population is far from homogeneous, and Trump’s victory may not impact Hispanics that are U.S. citizens. However, those that are not citizens, particularly the undocumented segment of the Hispanic population, will be under pressure. Obama’s executive order in November 2014 gave protection to approximately 5 million Hispanics — of which almost 50% live in California, Texas and Florida —  that are undocumented. A new president, Donald Trump, can reverse this executive order. Uncertainty for this portion of the Hispanic population will likely mean lower consumption rates.

3. Obamacare: Healthcare Marketing Looking Gloomy

Approximately 20 million Americans, of which 4 million are Hispanics, are now health-insured as a result of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), which jump-started Hispanic health insurance marketing in a substantial way. During the final week of his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump vowed to repeal the 2010 health-care law so quickly that he might summon Congress into a special session to accomplish the task.   The impact on healthcare insurance marketing may be substantial, both from a regulatory and target-audience perspective.

4. Big Media Mergers Are Less Likely

Donald Trump’s upset victory in the presidential race has raised new questions about whether AT&T ‘s pending $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner will secure approval from federal regulators. A wave of populism that put Trump over the top on Election Day has cast a shadow on the potential for other big deals involving media and entertainment assets. Trump’s campaign was hostile to the mainstream media establishment, particularly in its final months. In addition, Trump showed opposition to excessive media concentration.

5.The Polling/Data Modeling Industry Disaster May Bring Back the “Art” of Marketing

Trump’s victory was a huge surprise. In the age of real-time data input and massive analysis of data sets and surveys, the polling industry got it all wrong. This is a reminder that “art” is as essential to communications and marketing as is “science.”

…and 3 Facts.

1. Hispanics Were Not a Deciding Factor, or at Least Not in the Way Anti-Trump Pundits Expected

descarga-5According to CNN’s exit polls, about 27% of Latinos voted for Trump. Exit polls from The New York Times put the figure at 29%. This means that Trump did better with Hispanics than Bob Dole in 1996 (21%), and wound up comparable to Mitt Romney in 2012 (27%). But, this is a reminder that Latino voters aren’t monolithic, one-dimensional, or single-issue oriented. As Mike Gonzalez wrote in the Daily Signal, Mexican-Americans punished Trump for saying that Mexico sends us “rapists”: “But most of that took place in states out West, where Hillary Clinton won overwhelmingly. In Florida, people of Mexican origin comprised only 15% of the ‘Hispanic’ population as of the last Census.” In Florida, Cuban-Americans punished Clinton for supporting President Barack Obama’s diplomatic opening to the Castro dictatorship.

2. Urban-Multicultural Areas Voted Overwhelmingly for Clinton

The majority of the Northeast and the Western states, where a majority of the Hispanic population lives (particularly those with a Mexican origin), voted for Clinton. In many cases, overwhelmingly so. This was not the case with Texas. But even in Florida — which Trump won — the Miami urban areas, where Hispanics and multicultural consumers are a significant part of the population, the majority of the vote went to the Democratic candidate.

3. “Whitelash”: A Tale of Two Countries

Trump directed his campaign to whites who felt alienated by the influx of Hispanic and other immigrants. The white, mostly male, working-class vote (not millennials!) propelled Trump to victory, in stark contrast with the millennial and multicultural vote, which was essential to Obama during the last two presidential election cycles.

 

 

 

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What: Horizon has contributed in the launch of political match making App VoterGuru, which helps people find their top presidential candidate match.
Why it matters: VoterGuru Co-Founders, Ben Krakow and Ben Atkins, Seek to Educate Voters and Identify their Closest Ideological Candidate Match.

descargaVoterGuru, a New York-based tech startup that matches users with declared presidential candidates, has announced the launch of its Web platform. The company has raised capital via Horizon Media’s Incubator program to fuel the launch of its new web-based platform across the United States ahead of the Presidential elections this year.

VoterGuru tracks voting records and public statements of political candidates, and compares user inputs with politician records to find the closest ideological match. In addition to matching users with candidates, VoterGuru educates users on political topics by explaining the ideological spectrum, from “very liberal” to “very conservative,” on specific issues, ranging from abortion laws, to education policy, to privacy and more.

VoterGuru educates users on political topics by explaining the ideological spectrum, from “very liberal” to “very conservative”

VoterGuru is the brainchild of Ben Krakow, who also works as a Digital Business Analyst at Horizon Media and Ben Atkins, a Software Engineer. Krakow and Atkins brought the idea to life through the Dunes of Dreams invention development program created by Horizon Media, the media services agency. Through the company’s Dunes of Dreams competition, its employees are invited to invoke the agency’s entrepreneurial fiber by submitting their business plans and ideas for the chance to receive start-up funding and development resources – those selected by the agency leadership are then invited to participate in Horizon’s five month start-up Incubator.

“We are at a unique turning point where, more than ever, Americans are paying attention to politics,” explained Ben Krakow, Co-Founder and President of VoterGuru. “We, at VoterGuru, are excited for the opportunity to educate the public and simplify the process of learning about candidates and issues.”

Key features of the web platform include:

  • Issue education – Concisely explaining the spectrum of debate
  • Interactive visualizations – Comparing candidate and user views on each issue
  • Candidate conviction – Weighing how long and/or consistently a candidate has held a view and visualizing issue conviction for VoterGuru users

Krakow and Atkins submitted their idea to Dunes of Dreams and participated in Horizon’s start-up Incubator from May through October 2015. During this time, Krakow has assembled a team of experts to launch VoterGuru, bringing on Ben Atkins, Co-Founder and CTO, and Catherine Mayell, Creative Director and Web Designer.

Chris Kane, founder of Jounce Media and former Chief of Staff to Tim Armstrong at AOL, has signed on as an advisor to the VoterGuru team, alongside a team of mentors including Maria Freda, Senior Vice President and Controller at Horizon Media, Taylor Valentine, Chief Invention Officer at Horizon Media and Jeremy Shure, Director of Invention at Horizon Media.

“Ben’s team is the triple threat: they’ve identified white space and the ability to solve for a real problem with a captive audience, they’re incredibly bright and motivated, and they have created a scalable platform with many exciting opportunities,” said Jeremy Shure architect of and Director of Horizon’s startup Incubator. “We are incredibly proud of the platform that Ben has created and excited for Ben and his team to bring VoterGuru to market,” continued Shure.

 

 

What: According to “The Race for the White House 2016: Registered Voters and Media and Information During the Primaries,” a new research study from the IAB Digital media has reached parity with TV as a primary information source about presidential candidates.
Why it matters: The study also found U.S. Hispanic & African-American voters are more likely to get political news via mobile.‘Political Influentials,’on the other hand, are much more reliant on digital media than TV.

 

credit: Israel Ortega, December 11, 2015
credit: Israel Ortega, December 11, 2015

Digital media has reached parity with TV as a primary information source about presidential candidates (61% for both digital and TV) and political issues (67% for digital vs. 69% for TV) among registered U.S. voters, according to “The Race for the White House 2016: Registered Voters and Media and Information During the Primaries,” a new research study from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).

The findings demonstrate that digital is a critical medium for reaching U.S. voters during the primaries, with three-quarters of those who have seen a candidate’s online or mobile ad taking action afterwards, such as searching for more information about the candidate or starting an in-person conversation about them.

More than a third (35%) of registered voters say digital will be their most important method for getting candidate information during this election season. These U.S. voters are more likely to be younger (35% vs. 23% total), to take action after seeing an online political ad (71% vs. 53% total), stream the debates (30% vs. 20% total), and to vote in the primaries (90% vs. 85% total).

35% of registered voters say digital will be their most important method for getting candidate information during this election season.

U.S. Hispanics

credit: scpr.org
credit: scpr.org

Delving deeper into the results, the study reveals that certain demographic groups are more reliant on mobile for political news and views than others, particularly U.S. Hispanics and African-Americans. The report shows that:

  • 67 percent of Hispanic voters and 60 percent of African-American voters visit political sites on a mobile device as opposed to 49 percent of voters overall.
  • In addition, Hispanic voters are significantly more likely to take an action after viewing a digital or mobile ad for a candidate, with 87 percent of them saying they have done so.

Making the case even stronger for the importance of digital media in the current election cycle, registered voters who are more heavily involved in politics and public affairs, called “Political Influentials” in the study, are particularly dependent on digital media for their political information (78% for digital vs. 63% for TV).

social media

descargaThe report also shows that social media plays a key role in the political process, with 28 percent of registered voters saying they get information on candidates via social platforms. Other social media findings include:

  • 31% of registered voters read political articles and links shared by their friends on social media
  • 25% of registered voters have seen an ad for a candidate on social media
  • 24% of registered voters have “defriended” or “unfollowed” someone because of his or her political posts on social media platforms

“The results of the study demonstrate the vital role of digital media in the political process and substantiate that digital is on par with TV among registered voters as a key resource,” said Sherrill Mane, Senior Vice President of Research, Analytics, and Measurement, IAB. “As the election season heats up, it is abundantly clear that candidates and advocacy groups must harness the informational and relationship-building power of digital media to succeed.”

“U.S. Hispanic and African-American voters are crucial to candidates, and this research shows that mobile is the best way to reach them,” said Anna Bager, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Mobile and Video, IAB.

“The Race for the White House 2016: Registered Voters and Media and Information During the Primaries” was released during the 2016 IAB Annual Leadership Meeting at the JW Marriott Desert Springs Resort and Spa in Palm Desert, CA. To download the complete study, go toiab.com/electionstudy.

Methodology

The IAB commissioned Vision Critical to conduct this online study with 18+ U.S. registered voters in November 2015. The total sample of 1,513 is nationally representative of this registered voter population by age, gender, race, and ethnicity. Additional Hispanic registered voters were sampled to ensure statistical robustness in analyzing this important group of voters.