The number of Hispanics counted in the 2010 Census was nearly 1 million more than expected, based on the most recent Census Bureau population estimates, according to an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center.

The 2010 Census count of Hispanics was 50,478,0001, compared with 49,522,000 Hispanics in the bureau’s own estimates. The count was 1.9% higher (955,000 people) than the estimated population. In 32 states, the 2010 Census count of Hispanics was at least 2% higher than the estimates; in nine states, it was at least 2% lower than the estimates. In the nine remaining states and the District of Columbia, the difference was less than 2% in either direction.

By comparison, for the total U.S. population, the 2010 Census count of 308.7 million was barely lower (about 232,000 people) than the bureau’s population estimate for April 1, 2010. Compared with results a decade ago, the national Hispanic count in the 2010 Census was closer to the bureau’s population estimates than it had been in 2000. The 2000 Census count included 10% more Hispanics than the population estimates, and state-level discrepancies also were larger than in 2010.

The Pew Hispanic Center analysis indicates that states with large percentage differences between their Hispanic census counts and census estimates also were likely to have large percentage differences between census counts and census estimates for their total populations. This reflects the large role that Hispanics play in overall population growth—nationally, Hispanics accounted for 56% of the U.S. increase. Hispanics have accounted for most of the discrepancy between 2010 Census counts and census estimates of states’ total populations.

In addition, according to the Pew Hispanic Center analysis, states that have Hispanic populations under a million people (including many where Hispanic counts grew sharply) collectively had a larger percentage gap between their census counts and census estimates than did the nine states with larger, long-duration Hispanic communities.

Those nine traditional Hispanic states include Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Texas. Each has more than a million Hispanic residents (except New Mexico, with 953,000). Collectively, 28% of their population is Hispanic. As a group, those states are home to 38.6 million Hispanics, according to the 2010 Census, and their aggregate census count was about 362,000 (or .9%) larger than their aggregate census estimate.

In the other 41 states and District of Columbia, Hispanics make up 7% of the total population. These states as a group are home to 11.9 million Hispanics, and their combined 2010 Census count was 593,000 people (or 5.3%) higher than their combined census estimate. Among them was Alabama, where the Hispanic census count of 186,000 people was 16% higher than its census estimate, the largest gap among states. At the other extreme, the census count of 39,000 Hispanics in Alaska was 14% below the most recent census estimate. (Smaller populations by nature tend to be more volatile than large ones, so even a small numerical difference could result in a large percentage change.)

In the nine states with large Hispanic populations, five had gaps of more than two percentage points in either direction between census estimates and census counts. In four, the count was higher than the estimate. In New Jersey, the census count of 1.555 million was 4.6% higher than the census estimate for Hispanics. In Florida, the census count of 4.224 million was 3.7% higher than the estimate. In New York, the census count of 3.417 million Hispanics was 2.9% higher than the census estimate. In New Mexico, the census count of 953,000 was 2.6% higher than the estimate of Hispanics.

In the fifth, Arizona, the census count of 1.895 million Hispanics was 8.7% lower than the estimate; it also was lower than the Census Bureau’s estimates for 2008 and 2009. The gap in Arizona was almost entirely due to a lower-than-expected Census count in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix. The numerical gap of 180,000 between Arizona’s 2010 Census count and census estimate of Hispanics was the largest among states.

As the accompanying table shows, there were differences between census counts and census estimates for Hispanics in most parts of the country.

Read the full report here

Portada published US Census results previously for California,  Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Alabama, Hawaii and MissouriLouisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and VirginiaTexas, Illinois, South Dakota and Oklahoma and Nebraska, North Carolina, Delaware, Kansas and Wyoming.

As analysts interviewed by Portada predicted in our recently published Special 2010 Census Results Preview IssueEmerging Hispanic Markets, or states that are not part of  the top 10 Hispanic markets by population size are growing particularly fast (see the results for Georgia above, for instance).

Portada’s Emerging Hispanic Markets Forum to be celebrated in New York City on Sept. 21, 2011 will examine the case for marketing to Hispanics in regions that are not part of the top 5 Hispanic markets. These markets include states such as: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Maryland, Virginia, Washington DC, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South – North Carolina and Utah In addition, DMA’s that are often eclipsed by major neighboring metropolis will be analyzed (e.g.: Orange County, CA, Riverside, CA and Hoboken, NJ.).

The Forum will bring together major NYC and North East based clients and agencies with media executives and agencies that have a strong presence in emerging Hispanic markets. Make sure to register!

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