Like we did for 2011, here are our forecasts/predictions on what is going to happen in the Hispanic Marketing and Media space in 2012. Once the year ends we will put our own predictions to a test (in 2011 we got 2/3 of the predictions right).
So, lets see ….these are twelve things that Portada’s editorial team predicts will happen during 2012. While some are concrete occurrences, some others are trends:
1. Univision’s IPO will take place in 2012
Ha! We already said this last March, when Joe Uva stepped down as Univision’s CEO. Our take at the time was that Univision, was going to name Randy Falcon, former COO, as CEO, because, among other reasons, he is more investor friendly. This did actually happen a few months later. More importantly, the investors who took the broadcast behemoth private (Madison Dearborn, Providence Equity Partners, Texas Pacific Group, Thomas H. Lee and Saban Capital) want to be able to monetize their investment in 2012 through an IPO. We are not the only ones to forecast Univision’s IPO in 2012 so does Business Insider in this article: (“These are the 6 IPO’s to Watch next Year”.(BTW, another big media IPO of 2012 will be Facebook. Look for a $100 billion valuation!).
2. Mobile becomes huge for Hispanic Marketing
Mobile media (Mobile phones, Tablets and E-Readers) will become a major force in Hispanic Marketing and Advertising. That is why Portada is dedicating a special event (The Hispanic Mobile Marketing Forum on Sept. 19, 2012) to analyze this phenomenon. Marketers, agencies and media executives will get a clear picture about the opportunities and challenges that exist in Hispanic mobile marketing. The Forum will take place one day before Portada’s Sixth Annual Hispanic Digital and Print Media Conference on Sept. 20th. Mobile Marketing opportunities extend beyond the different types of advertising (e.g. SMS, Display, In App, Rich Media, Video-pre-roll, Geotargeting, Mobile Search, Apps etc…), and also include Mobile Commerce (M-Commerce). Hispanic Consumers spent more than $5.15 billion during this year’s holiday season on mobile devices, according to the Hispanic Holiday Mobile Survey 2011 by Zpryme.
3. The “SoLoMo” trend will continue
“SoloMo”, or Social-Local-Mobile will be increasingly applied to marketing strategies. Particularly in the Hispanic market, where both social networking and mobile usage overindex. Geolocalization when using mobile media, e.g. checking in on Facebook and/or FourSquare, or in review sites such as Yelp will be driving local consumer marketing and advertising. QR Code integrations in print advertising will play a particularly important role for retail. Online-Mobile Gaming and In-Game Advertising will play an increasingly important role.
4. T-Mobile will end in the hands of a Latin Telecommunications giant
Now that AT&T has officially announced that it is no longer pursuing a T-Mobile acquisition, we know for sure that as “a contractual penalty for the collapse of the merger, AT&T will pay T-Mobile $3 billion in cash, and give T-Mobile at least $1 billion worth of spectrum rights. The two companies have also entered into a 7-year roaming agreement”, SeekingAlpha reports.
Now who will end up buying T-Mobile if, as expected, owner Deutsche Telekom continues to intend to sell its U.S. T-Mobile holdings? We say that Latin Telco giants America Movil and Telefonica have a strong chance to end up acquiring T-Mobile. America Movil already has a significant presence in the U.S. prepaid wireless carrier market with Tracfone’s existing 15 million customer unit. America Movil could also leverage its strong brand in Mexico by marketing rebranded T-Mobile products to U.S. Hispanic consumers. Spain’s Telefonica’s chances are more far-fetched, although some of America Movil’s T-Mobile acquisition rationale also applies to Telefonica. Conill is T-Mobile’s advertising agency for the U.S. Hispanic market, while Starcom Media Vest buys media for Telefonica in Latin America and MPG-Havas is America Movil’s media buying agency.
5. U.S. Hispanic Advertising Market will grow by 5% in 2012…
As 50+ Hispanic marketing executives said in a recently published Portada Survey, U.S. Hispanic Advertising will grow by approximately 5% in 2012 driven by Auto, Political and Financial Advertising.
6. Hispanic Digital Advertising’s expansion will continue to grow at a high rate
While digital advertising in the U.S. Hispanic market still amounts to less than 5% of the overall advertising pie, compared to nearly 20% for the overall U.S. market, the U.S. Hispanic digital advertising market will continue to grow in 2012 at a very high rate.
Portada recently asked several executives from companies heavily involved in digital advertising in the U.S. Hispanic market, Latin America and Spain about their growth expectations for 2012. On average, respondents of these so-called Latin Digital Powerhouses expect digital advertising in the Latin World to grow by 15% in 2012.
7. Online Video will be on a roll
Within digital media Hispanic online video advertising will be growing the most. The rationale is very compelling: Hispanics watch more video online than their general market counterparts. Content providers will be working hard to increase their online offerings, particularly of Spanish-language online video, and satisfy the needs of the online video advertising markets.
8. Hispanics Newspapers will do well overall
Hispanic Newspapers will continue to have a relatively strong performance, particularly when compared to their U.S. general market counterparts. The strong community media element of Hispanic newspapers plays in favor of them. So does the fact that print media continues to be a great way to target Spanish-dominant U.S. Hispanics. Portada recently broke the news about the launch of a relatively large circulation Hispanic weekly in Los Angeles (El Punto Semanal). Hispanic magazines, which had a very strong advertising performance in 2012, also are seeing a some new launches including Vida y Salud and Hearst’s Cosmopolitan Latina.
9. ImpreMedia will be acquired
It’s a “secret” everyone talks about in the Hispanic digital and print media world. When will the largest Hispanic newspaper and digital news publisher be sold by its current investors? Impremedia private equity backers Clarity Partners, Halyard Capital Fund, ACON Investments and Knight Paton Media as well as Goldman Sachs (who provided a loan) are looking for an exit. Most of these investors bought their stakes in ImpreMedia in 2003. Who are the possible buyers? In our view, the most likely buyer is a large general market newspaper chain who wants to place a strong bet on the Hispanic digital and print media markets. Possible acquirers include Gannett, former Impremedia CEO John Patton’s Journal Register and Media News Group. Some industry sources point to a large Latin American media group that wants to extend its presence in the U.S. Hispanic market. We will see, but our bet is that next year at this time we will know…
10. Measurable (Targeted) Media will continue its expansion
The rise of digital media and the data about audience reach engagement etc that comes with, is impacting other media. Targeted TV (e.g. Hispanic audiences of general market TV programs) are also being developed and increasingly sold to advertisers. So is Targeted print media (see Hearst’s recent announcement to personalize Advertising content together with Hewlett Packard).
11. E-Commerce and Online Media will get closer
Content Marketing applied to online media has a lot to do with SEO. Once the content attracts an audience, that audience can be monetized via advertising or via e-commerce. Major companies, who attract millions if not tens of millions of unique visitors, are betting on content production to attract the right audience and then convert readers into buyers. Watch out for more and more CPG’s and retailers hiring journalists and editors to produce and curate content on their corporate (media) sites.
12. Spanish-Language Media will continue to lead
During the last months of 2012 several new ventures, particularly digital media properties, have been launched to target English-dominant Hispanics online. Will these in-culture English-language media be able to differentiate itself enough from general market English-language media and obtain major advertising buys? The jury is still out. In any case, while English-dominant targeted Hispanic media is a great addition to the Hispanic advertising and media landscape, we think that, when it comes to mass media, in 2012 Spanish-language will continue to be the pre-eminent way to market to and reach the U.S. Hispanic population.