Did our 2011 predictions pan out? In early January of this year we published our 12 Latin Marketing and Media Predictions for 2011. Lets go through each of them and see if we were right or not.
Prediction Nr. 1: “Census Results will vindicate Marketing to Hispanics”
Did it happen?
A RESOUNDING YES! Between 2000 and 2010 the Hispanic population grew at a rate of 42%, while the total population grew at a rate of 10%. In addition, Hispanic buying power is close to a trillion dollars and expected to grow to $1.3 trillion by 2014, according to the Selig Center for Economic Growth Forecasts. Hispanic wallets are definitely getting fatter. Also, 40% of Latinos are less than 18 years old. Who in their right mind would want to exclude such a a large segment of consumers? Read it all in our Census Results for Marketers Special Supplement.
Prediction Nr. 2: Emerging Hispanic Markets will be increasingly important.
Did it happen?
YES. “2010 Census maps reveal that Hispanics are moving into smaller communities throughout the U.S. perhaps as a result of increasing hostility in larger metro areas against immigrants,” says Edward T Rincon, president of Rincon % Associates, a researchfirm that explores demographic trends. Read it all in our Emerging Hispanic Markets, “Hot, but outside the Comfortzone“, feature. Also, in 2011 Portada organized the Emerging Hispanic Markets Forum highlighting the increasing importance of markets outside of the top 5 Hispanic markets.
Prediction Nr. 3: Spanish will continue to be the predominant Language spoken among Hispanics
Did it happen?
NOPE. Births from U.S. born Latinos have overtaken immigration as the driver of Hispanic growth between 2000 to 2010. English is and will continue to be the dominant language for U.S Hispanics that are born in the U.S.
Prediction Nr. 4: The “O”(wned) and “E”(arned) in the “POEM” matrix will increase
Did it happen?
YES. Yes while paid media (advertising) did increase in 2011, the number of media owned by consumer packaged goods companies and other non-traditional media companies has increased (e.g. General Mills que Rica Vida or Kraft’s Comida y Familia.) Public Relations, particularly if we include social media into this discipline, is also gaining in clout.
Prediction Nr. 5: Media Properties will ride the Brand Integration Trend and expand into the Agency Business
Did it happen?
YES. We are seeing this more and more. Practically all the large media corporations are incorporating agency functions (including buying media in other media properties) to their scope of work. Also the smaller ones are adapting their business models. See for example FnBox is expanding into telecommunications, e-commerce and online advertising networks.
Prediction Nr. 6: Newspaper Companies will stay (and boom again)
Did it happen?
YES AND NO… Hispanic newspapers, while not growing a lot, are faring much better than general market newspapers. (According to recent Kantar Media Stats: Local Newspapers, despite robust budgets from local auto dealers and an uptick in financial advertising, posted a 4.4 percent spending decline in Q3 and were down 3.9 percent year-to-date. In comparison, advertising in Spanish – language newspapers declined 1,1% during the first nine months of 2011 and increased 2.9% during the third quarter (July-Sept).) In addition, new Hispanic newspapers are currently being launched (See this week’s announcement of the launch of a new Los Angeles Spanish-language weekly).
Prediction Nr. 7: Online Advertising will increasingly be a (Commodity) Trading Business
Did it happen?
YES. Online Trading exchanges be it on the demand side (DSP‘s) or more on the publisher’s side are definitely on the rise.
Prediction Nr. 8: Broadcast will reign
YES. TV continues to be the number one media type measured by ad revenues, particularly in the Hispanic market. This bodes well for online video advertising, a format that is still small but is growing tremendously.
Prediction Nr 9: General Market Agency Shops will get more Hispanic Business
Did it happen?
YES. Particularly on the media planning and buying side this is a clear trend.
Prediction Nr 10: Social Networks as Ad Vehicles? The Jury still will be out
Did it happen?
YES. At the end of 2011, the jury still is out. While social networks are clearly a force to be reckoned with in marketing and media, there are no conclusive insights yet as to the impact of advertising in social networks. However, one thing is clear: Facebook is definitely raking in display advertising dollars. It has a 19.4% share of the U.S display ad market vs. only 7% in 2009.
Prediction Nr. 11: Mobile Advertising Becomes a Factor
Did it happen?
NO, BUT … Mobile Advertising is still very small in the Hispanic market. In the general U.S. market it is approaching a sizable figure of $1.5 billion this year (although less than 1% of the overall ad market). However, there is no doubt that mobile will play a very important role in Hispanic marketing and advertising. Hispanics interact more with their mobile phones than with their TV’s, the possibilities for M-Commerce, Text Message Sponsorships, In App Advertising etc. are almost endless. Hispanic smartphone growth rate is even outpacing that of the general market.
Prediction Nr. 12.: Local online Advertising will Boom
Did it happen?
NOPE. Local online advertising has not grown so much this year. Although a big part of Google’s growth comes from mobile. However, Bia Kelsey is expecting it to increase to $42.5 billion by 2015, nearly twice 2010’s $21.7 billion, for a compound annual growth rate of 14.4 percent.A big part of this increase will be buoyed by the expansion of mobile.
