GroupM expects global ad spend to rise 3.5% to $451 billion, compared to the 1% rise it predicted six months ago, driven mainly by emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China, as well as digital advertising.
If achieved, the dollar total equals the amount spent in 2006-2007, or in 2004-2005 when accounting for consumer price inflation. The report also forecast a 4.5% global increase for 2011.
The study, "This Year, Next Year" is part of GroupM's media and marketing forecasting series drawn from data supplied by parent company WPP's worldwide resources in advertising, public relations, market research, and specialist communications. It was released today by GroupM Futures Director Adam Smith and GroupM Chief Investment Officer Rino Scanzoni.
As anticipated, countries in the so-called BRIIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China) contributed significant growth.
"China remains the world's biggest contributor to ad growth in 2010, accounting for one in three of all net new ad dollars we expect this year, and one in five as the rest of the world catches up in 2011," said Smith. "Indonesia and India are the next biggest contributors from Asia. Our grouping of 'new world' countries accounts for 34% of the global economy this year and 30% of measured media investment."
Smith also said digital advertising expenditures are also playing a key role in worldwide advertising expenditure growth.
"The recession has not impacted internet ad spending except in a handful of highly-stressed markets, adding 10 % to its measured total in 2009," Smith said. "What continues to power the medium is the steady advance in creativity, analysis and technology which embeds digital in almost all marketing activity. Measured internet added two points of global ad share in each of 2007, 2008 and 2009 and we think it will sustain a rate of one point a year this year and next, to reach 16 % in 2011."
In the U.S., ad spending is expected to decline 1.3 % in 2010 to $145 billion, down from the $147 billion spent in 2009, which represented a 7 % drop from the previous year. In 2011, U.S. ad spending is projected to increase 2.5 % to $149 billion.
"The U.S media marketplace has clearly bottomed out earlier this year and we expect moderate growth in 2011 consistent with GDP improvement," said Scanzoni. "Television and on-line spending will outpace other media as they lead with return on investment metrics."