The Crystal Ball: 2009 Growth Forecasts

In this forward-looking feature, Portada consults some top industry insiders on their growth forecasts for 2009.
 
.Jose Villa, CEO Sensis
.Danny Allen, CEO Admixture
.Paul Suskey, Co-founder Media 8
.Guillermo Plehn, Commercial Director Televisa Publishing
 
Categories
Paul Suskey
Jose Villa
Guillermo Plehn (Print)
Automotive
0% to 5%
0%
0-10%
Apparel
0% to 5%
0%
0% to 5%
Alcoholic Beverages
0% to 5%
10% plus
5% - 10%
Financial
0% to 5%
0% to 5%
Flat to 20%
CPG
5-10%
0% to 5%
5% to 10%
Restaurants
0% to 5%
0%
0% to 5%
Retail
5% to 10%
0% to 5%
0% to 5%
Telecommunications
5% to 10%
10% plus
0% to 5%
Travel
5% to 10%
0 or negative
0% to 5%
Media
5% to 10%
0% to 5%
0% to 5%
Home Furnishing/Home Improvement
5% to 10%
0 or negative
0% to 5%
Source: Portada
 
 
Automotive
Jose Villa: I think auto will grow (contrary to general consensus). There is a big trend in auto ad spend towards digital. I think Hispanic auto digital spend will increase, but it will come out of general market interactive budgets, not Hispanic budgets (which will be cut). I forecast 5-10% increase.
 
Danny Allen: As with the rest of the advertising industry, the loss of auto dollars is going to hurt Hispanic media.
 
 
Apparel
 
Jose Villa: This isn’t a big category right now, and I don’t expect apparel companies to “experiment” in Hispanic digital right now, so I would assume 0% growth.
Danny Allen: Apparel – I haven’t seen that much apparel in online Hispanic.
 
 
Alcoholic Beverages
 
Jose Villa: Probably 10% plus growth. The issue holding back more growth in this category will be compliance with over 21 audience composition.
 
Danny Allen: Alcohol does well in a down market.
Financial
 
Jose Villa: 0%-5%. These guys haven’t advertised in the past, so the meltdown and consolidation won’t really affect Hispanic digital budgets that never really existed. What I think might happen is that some opportunistic regional banks that are doing well might smell blood and be more aggressive.
 
Danny Allen: We’re going to lose a lot of mortgage advertising and bank consolidation will probably hurt advertising by large retail banks.  This sector may be helped by advertising by local and regional banks reaching out to the Hispanic market.
 
 
CPG
 
Jose Villa: CPGs will increase for the same reason as auto – they are shifting budgets to digital, and Hispanic digital will get a share.
 
Danny Allen: They will concentrate on the staples.
 
Restaurants
 
Jose Villa: Like apparel, there hasn’t been a lot of activity here in the past, and I don’t see a lot of experimentation in 2009
 
Danny Allen: I haven’t seen much of this…
 
 
Retail
 
Jose Villa: I’m bullish about Holiday 2009 – I think retail ad spend will bounce back big time next year and Hispanic digital will enjoy a late year boost.
 
Danny Allen: Low-end retail will continue to do OK and continue to reach out to the Hispanic market.
 
Telecommunications
 
Jose Villa: Telecom will grow. These guys are very aggressive and will continue to invest in Hispanic digital. They are arguably the leaders in Hispanic digital ad spend.
 
Danny Allen: This should remain competitive, and telecoms are going to continue to understand/figure out that Hispanics are a great mobile phone market.
 
Travel
 
Jose Villa: Hmm… this will be tough. I don’t see this area doing well, aside from a few airlines like jetBlue and Southwest.
 
Danny Allen: Discretionary spending is going to be down.  The travel industry will be hurting.
 
Media
 
Jose Villa: Companies like Batanga, Impremedia, Terra and local media will continue their robust investments in digital media for increasing traffic.
 
Danny Allen: There will continue to be new Hispanic media vehicles and the existing ones will continue to compete against each other.  Dollars may not be as high.
 
Home Furnishing/Home Improvement
 
Jose Villa: Ouch… Negative growth if that is possible. This is one industry that has been decimated with the bursting of the housing bubble and credit crunch.
 
Danny Allen: These companies are going to be hurting because people won’t be able to use home equity loans to improve their houses.  And fewer people are going to own houses.  This may be down as much as auto.


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